Crunching data and rethinking plans

So for the last week, I’ve been having some long reflections with ChatGPT (I say “reflection” instead of “discussion,” because generative AI is more like a sophisticated mirror than a mind) and crunching a bunch of the data that I’ve accumulated over the course of my career. It’s fascinating, because one of the things that generative AI is surprisingly good at is crunching large amounts of data and extracting interesting patterns from it. It’s less good at drawing useful conclusions, but that’s what God gave us humans a mind for.

One of the more interesting data points is that the ideal frequency with which to release new full-length novels is once every 3-6 months, ideally every 3-4 months. After 6 months without a novel release, sales tend to fall off, and after 9 months, they fall completely off of a cliff.

From this, I’ve decided to rework my release schedule, so that every January, May, and September, I have a new novel coming out. The goal is to have the next novel ready and up for preorder before the current one goes live. Between new novel releases, I plan to rerelease short stories, bundle and release box sets, or release new original short stories and novellas, with something coming out each month.

It’s an aggressive release schedule, but with the way I’ve incorporated AI into my writing process, I think I can manage it. It took me about 120 total writing man-hours to write Captive of the Falconstar, and with practice I can probably get that down lower. During the school year, while my wife is teaching or researching and I’m generally the one watching the kids, I can only get about an hour of work in each day, but I can do more like 2-3 hours in the summer, so that’s when I plan to catch up. That comes to about 400 man-hours of writing time in a given year, which is more than enough to write three 120 man-hour novels.

I’m going to try to give myself a bit of a buffer, though. After Captive of the Falconstar comes out in July, I plan to wait 6 months and publish The Unknown Sea in January 2027. The next release will be Lord of the Falconstar in May 2027, concluding the Falconstar Trilogy. After that, I plan to launch the Rise of the Falconstar Trilogy in September 2027 with The Soulbond and the Sling, following up with books 2 and 3 in January and May 2028.

My big summer project this year is The Unknown Sea, which I will probably finish sometime next month. After that, I’ll work on Lord of the Falconstar with a goal of finishing it well before the end of the year. Should be very doable. And since the AI draft of The Soulbond and the Sling is already complete, it shouldn’t take more than a few months to finish it. So by the time January 2027 rolls around, I may be more than halfway done with my September release for that year.

That’s the plan, anyway. I may want to experiment with crowdfunding some of these novels, especially The Soulbond and the Sling—which is another good reason to push it back to September 2027. But we’ll see how it goes.

Full steam ahead!

I’ve been making good progress on The Unknown Sea this week, pushing forward at a very good rate now that my wife is at home watching the kids. She’s got the next couple of months off for the summer, allowing me to write full-time, and I plan to take advantage of that as much as I can. This was the first week of that, and while I still feel like I’m ramping up to full speed, I did get quite a bit of writing done.

Right now, The Unknown Sea is at about 50% for the AI draft, 28% for the rough human draft, 22% for the revised human draft, and 11% for the final polished draft. I’m experimenting with pushing through all of those draft phases at once, obviously with different parts of the novel being at different stages. If everything proceeds according to my outline, the final draft will clock in at around sixteen chapters, 53 scenes, and between 65k to 70k words (or around 180 – 220 pages).

I probably won’t be able to finish it before the end of May, but I do think I can finish it by mid-June. It’s going to take a lot of work, but I’ve got the time now, so it’s mostly just a matter of buckling down and making it happen. It’s about the same length as Captive of the Falconstar, which took about 120 writing hours to finish, and I’ve already put in about 50 writing hours. To finish The Unknown Sea by May 15th, I need to average about 3.5 writing hours per day, which is going to be a bit tricky since 1) I still have a bunch of publishing tasks to work on, and 2) we have a family trip to Coeur D’Alene in the middle of that, but I think I can manage it.

I would really like to have it sufficiently finished so that I can start work on Lord of the Falconstar before Captive of the Falconstar releases in July. That way, I can estimate how much time I need to finish Lord of the Falconstar and have it up for preorder. But I may go ahead and put it up for preorder anyway, just with a long enough lead-time that I know I can have the book done before then.

What I’ll probably do is put The Unknown Sea up for preorder with a release date around October-November 2026, and Lord of the Falconstar up with a release date around January-February 2027. I’ve got a rough AI draft done for Lord of the Falconstar, but not much more than that, and I probably need to update some of the character cards and chapter prompts, which is also going to take time. So Lord of the Falconstar probably won’t come out until sometime in 2027, regardless.

Writing full-time over the summer

My parents were both high school teachers, and they told me that the three best things about being a teacher are: June, July, and August. My wife is a BYU professor, so she’s got a two month break instead of a three month break, but she can take it anytime over the summer, and she’s decided to start it next week. That way, she’ll be watching the kids from the end of BYU kindergarten to the week after Writers Cantina in July, giving me all that time to write full-time.

I am really looking forward to it! With luck, I can finish The Unknown Sea and push far enough into Lord of the Falconstar that I can put it up for preorder before Captive of the Falconstar is released. It’s going to take a lot of work, but I think I can do it. Captive took me a total of 120 hours to write, and I’m already about a third of the way through The Unknown Sea, so I can probably finish that by the first half of June. And then, I’ll go full ahead on Lord of the Falconstar to have that trilogy well and truly done by the end of the summer.

Looking forward, we have a wedding at the end of May, and a family trip up to Idaho in the first week of June. Coeur d’Alene is a solid 10 hour drive from Orem, Utah, which is one heck of a crazy haul, but we’ve done it before, though not with three kids. We’ll only be there for a weekend. Other than that, we’ll be at home for most of that time. So that’s the plan.

As for The Unknown Sea, it’s coming along very well, but I only have another half hour to work on it before it’s time to put the kids to bed, so I’d better get back to that now.

Is Captive of the Falconstar For You?

Is Captive of the Falconstar for you?

Captive of the Falconstar is a dark, character-driven space opera about captivity, ambition, survival, and the brutal politics of power among the Hameji star clans. It follows Zenoba as she tries to secure her place as Queen of the Falconstar, while Sonya—still trapped as a captive servant—clings to the hope of freedom, home, and revenge. This is a tense, intimate, politically charged story for readers who like their space opera full of court intrigue, moral danger, starship raids, and emotional betrayal.

What Kind of Reader Will Love Captive of the Falconstar?

If you love dark space opera with dynastic politics, warrior star clans, arranged marriages, captivity, espionage, and power struggles inside a ruling household, then Captive of the Falconstar is probably your kind of story. This book is especially for readers who enjoy morally complicated female characters, ruthless survival choices, political marriages, pregnancy and succession stakes, revenge arcs, and stories where personal relationships become battlegrounds for control, loyalty, and identity.

What You’ll Find Inside

Inside Captive of the Falconstar, you’ll find a former captive who has remade herself into a queen, a still-captive servant who refuses to forget who she was, and a weakened star clan fighting to restore its lost power. The story moves between intimate household tension, religious prophecy, starship combat, espionage, and political maneuvering, with a mood that is dark, intense, sensual, and increasingly dangerous. The pacing balances character drama with bursts of military space opera action, making the book feel both personal and epic.

What Makes Captive of the Falconstar Different

Where many space operas focus mainly on fleets, empires, and battles, Captive of the Falconstar puts dynastic survival and household politics at the center of the conflict. It has the clan warfare and starship action of military science fiction, but the emotional engine is closer to a dark court-intrigue fantasy, where marriages, heirs, names, servants, concubines, and rival queens matter as much as weapons and ships. Readers who enjoy the political intensity of royal fantasy, but want it transplanted into a star-spanning frontier setting, will find a lot to sink their teeth into here. What sets it apart is the way it refuses to make power simple: survival, loyalty, ambition, love, and coercion are all tangled together aboard the Falconstar.

What You Won’t Find

This is not a light, cozy, or comfort-read space adventure. It deals directly with captivity, slavery, sexual power dynamics, coercion, polygyny, pregnancy, revenge, and morally compromised choices, so readers looking for clean-cut heroes or a straightforward romance may not be the right fit. You also won’t find a simple “escape from the villains” story—the book is much more interested in what captivity does to identity, and what people become when power is the only protection they can find.

Why I Think You Might Love It

I think this story matters because it pushes the questions from Queen of the Falconstar even further: what happens when a woman survives by becoming ruthlessly competent, only to discover that the system she has mastered can still turn against her? Zenoba fascinates me because she is brilliant, dangerous, and deeply human, while Sonya gives the story its wounded conscience and its hunger for justice. If you like stories about power, identity, survival, and the terrible cost of becoming what the world demands, I think Captive of the Falconstar will stay with you.

Where to Get the Book

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Related Posts and Pages

Explore the series index for the Falconstar Trilogy.

Return to the book page for Captive of the Falconstar.

Back to writing fantasy

Now that I’ve finished Captive of the Falconstar, I’m back to writing fantasy again, this time The Unknown Sea from the Sea Mage Cycle. I was going to focus on The Soulbond and the Sling, but this book is much shorter, and I think I can have it up for preorder by the time Captive goes live. It’s also about a quarter of the way finished already, so finishing it will only take a little push.

What I really don’t want to do is spend six months working on a WIP that I won’t be able to release this year, or maybe even next year, only to have my sales fall off a cliff because I haven’t been publishing anything. Which means that there may never be a good time to work on The Soulbond and the Sling (or The People of the Last Harvest, for that matter), but if I can set up a few long-term preorders, that may give me the space I need. I’m also going to try making it a side project and working on it on the side, for those rare times when I get an extra hour or two.

There are two more science fiction books that I plan to write: Lord of the Falconstar and Return of the Starborn Son. Both of those will complete a trilogy (The Falconstar Trilogy and the Outworld Trilogy, respectively). But I plan to intersperse those projects with fantasy WIPs, so that I’ll alternate between fantasy and science fiction until those unfinished trilogies are all complete. And then, I’ll focus exclusively on writing fantasy.

The Unknown Sea shouldn’t take long to finish, though the AI draft is rougher than I remember it being. I suppose that means I’m getting better at this, since my older work now seems so much worse. All that really means is that the human draft will take longer, since I’ll fix it all up and make it good for the final draft. But I don’t think I will be finished with this WIP until at least the end of June, and probably the end of July.

My wife plans to fill out her 10 month contract on schedule, giving her two months off in the summer. That should give me July and most of August to write full-time. Perhaps that will be a good chance to work on The Soulbond and the Sling, or finish up Lord of the Falconstar quickly enough that I can put it on a long-term preorder and spend the next six months working on the Soulbound King books. We’ll see how it goes.

Captive of the Falconstar is complete!

I just finished it this morning. The final draft clocks in at twelve chapters, 63 scenes, and 64,372 words (or approximately 220 pages, though I still need to typeset it). I’ll send it off to my editor later today.

Next WIP(s): The Soulbond and the Sling and The Soulbond and the Lady.

Sorry

Wow, it’s been a while since I posted to this blog. I was just about to get back in the saddle, after finishing the rough human draft of Captive of the Falconstar, but then things got a little crazy and I dropped the ball.

What happened? Well, I got into a minor accident where I bent the family car’s door out of shape, and that took about a week and $1500ish to solve. Our 6 month-old also came down with croup (again) and an ear infection, so that wasn’t fun—he’s much better now, though, fortunately. Classes ended for my wife, and now she has to grade a bazillion papers. And finally, we had taxes, which were so complicated this year that we found the limit of what Free Fillable Forms can and can’t do. So that was crazy.

On the writing end of things, I tried and failed to juggle four different projects at the same time, so that threw things off a ton. So instead of trying to keep that up, I decided to focus on Captive of the Falconstar and all the prewriting/outlining for The People of the Last Harvest. Both of those projects went really well, actually, and I’m back at a place where I think I can start doing some token work on the other two WIPs as well.

Basically, the plan is to cut the daily workload for Captive in half, and put off Last Harvest until Captive is done and off to the editor. At that point, I’ll turn my focus to The Soulbond and the Sling and The Soulbond and the Lady. Until then, I’ll just do token work on those two—just the minimum amount to keep my writing skills warm enough that I can hit the ground running once Captive is well and truly done.

I guess I just thought I could do all the revisions and polishing work for Captive of the Falconstar in two short weeks. I’ve done it before, for some of the Sea Mage Cycle books, but those were super short and I also didn’t have nearly as much family stuff going on at the time.

So yeah, underestimating the workload was probably what led to crashing out. But I’ve got a much better handle on it now, and I think I can finish Captive before the end of the month, even while doing token work on the other WIPs. And I also need to catch up on some publishing things, like writing and sending out another author newsletter, but that shouldn’t be too difficult. Just an hour a day should catch up with that in about a week.

As a side note, I am SUPER excited to work on The People of the Last Harvest. I’ve got all the Sudowrite fields filled out (except the outline, which won’t take long), so now all I have to do is go through and write the scene prompts to generate each chapter. Once I’ve got a rough AI draft, I plan to run it through a bunch of the Author Media Patrol Toolbox tools, like the Zeitgeist Vibe Checker, the Not A Developmental Editor, and the Roast Engine to figure out which changes to make. With that, I’ll go through and make the necessary changes to generate a better AI draft, and go from there.

Also, I should probably mention that I’m planning to attend the 2027 Novel Marketing Conference in Austin this coming January. Just bought the tickets for that. And of course, I’ll be at Writers Cantina in July, as a panelist.

The kids are screaming, so I’d better go check on that and make sure my wife isn’t too overwhelmed. Take care! I’ll start posting regularly again next week, probably.